WindCast · Medemblik

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Wind, radar & satellite

08162535

Coming hours — best model, corrected

Best model now: AROME/ARPEGE (MF) · bias -0.0 kn / +0°

Time	Model (raw)	Corrected	Gust (corr.)
21:00	261° / 6 kn	261° / 7 kn	8 kn
22:00	260° / 6 kn	260° / 7 kn	8 kn
23:00	254° / 4 kn	254° / 4 kn	6 kn
00:00	197° / 4 kn	197° / 4 kn	5 kn
01:00	231° / 5 kn	231° / 5 kn	7 kn
02:00	217° / 5 kn	217° / 5 kn	7 kn

Stavoren IJsselmeer

↓298° 6kn

gust – kn · ▬ · 64 min ago

Stavoren

↓298° 7kn

gust 10 kn · ▬ · 14 min ago

Houtribdijk

↓282° 7kn

gust 10 kn · ▲ +2 · 14 min ago

Markermeer Trintelzand

↓290° 9kn

gust – kn · ▲ +2 · 24 min ago

Rotterdamsehoek IJsselmeer

↓279° 7kn

gust – kn · 24 min ago

Markermeer, midden

↓286° 7kn

gust – kn · ▼ -2 · 24 min ago

De Kooy

↓282° 5kn

gust 7 kn · ▬ · 14 min ago

IJmuiden

↓292° 8kn

gust 10 kn · ▼ -2 · 14 min ago

Wind last 6 hours — stations · highlighted: Houtribdijk — show all stations again

Model bias now — rolling 3 h · compare models

	Model	bias		spreiding
	Model	TWS	TWD	TWS	TWD
1	AROME/ARPEGE (MF)4/7	-0.0	+0°	±1.1 kn	±5°
2	Harmonie (KNMI)3/7	-0.2	+1°	±1.3 kn	±8°
3	ICON (DWD)0/7	+0.3	-2°	±1.4 kn	±7°
4	UKMO0/7	+0.5	+7°	±1.2 kn	±6°
5	ECMWF IFS0/7	-1.7	-8°	±0.9 kn	±7°
6	GFS (NOAA)0/7	-1.1	-9°	±1.7 kn	±8°

bias stable across the window ✓ — correction reliable
Positive: model too strong / veered. Correction in Coming hours = forecast − bias.
4/6 behind a model = how often it ranked first over the last 6 hours.

Run monitor

Model	Received	Largest shift (12 h)
Harmonie (KNMI)	NEW Thu 20:47	Δ 2.0 kn / 46°
AROME/ARPEGE (MF)	NEW Thu 20:47	Δ 1.7 kn / 30°
ECMWF IFS	Thu 15:43	Δ 0.8 kn / 18°
GFS (NOAA)	Thu 19:27	Δ 1.9 kn / 18°
ICON (DWD)	Thu 19:00	Δ 1.3 kn / 22°
UKMO	NEW Thu 20:47	Δ 0.8 kn / 32°

A large Δ means the model has substantially changed its mind versus its previous run — a reason to review the forecast.