WindCast · Medemblik

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Wind, radar & satellite

08162535

Coming hours — best model, corrected

Best model now: AROME/ARPEGE (MF) · bias -0.0 kn / +1°

Time	Model (raw)	Corrected	Gust (corr.)
20:00	262° / 6 kn	261° / 6 kn	8 kn
21:00	261° / 6 kn	260° / 7 kn	8 kn
22:00	260° / 6 kn	259° / 7 kn	8 kn
23:00	254° / 4 kn	253° / 4 kn	6 kn
00:00	197° / 4 kn	196° / 4 kn	5 kn
01:00	231° / 5 kn	230° / 5 kn	7 kn

Stavoren IJsselmeer

↓298° 6kn

gust – kn · ▬ · 55 min ago

Stavoren

↓298° 6kn

gust 8 kn · ▬ · 15 min ago

Houtribdijk

↓276° 6kn

gust 8 kn · ▬ · 15 min ago

Markermeer Trintelzand

↓282° 8kn

gust – kn · ▬ · 25 min ago

Rotterdamsehoek IJsselmeer

↓281° 6kn

gust – kn · ▼ -2 · 25 min ago

Markermeer, midden

↓284° 7kn

gust – kn · ▬ · 45 min ago

De Kooy

↓285° 5kn

gust 7 kn · ▬ · 15 min ago

IJmuiden

↓278° 8kn

gust 10 kn · ▼ -3 · 15 min ago

Wind last 6 hours — stations · highlighted: Stavoren — show all stations again

Model bias now — rolling 3 h · compare models

	Model	bias		spreiding
	Model	TWS	TWD	TWS	TWD
1	AROME/ARPEGE (MF)3/6	-0.0	+1°	±1.1 kn	±5°
2	Harmonie (KNMI)3/6	-0.2	+1°	±1.3 kn	±7°
3	ICON (DWD)0/6	+0.3	-1°	±1.3 kn	±8°
4	UKMO0/6	+0.6	+8°	±1.2 kn	±7°
5	ECMWF IFS0/6	-1.7	-7°	±0.9 kn	±8°
6	GFS (NOAA)0/6	-1.0	-7°	±1.7 kn	±8°

bias stable across the window ✓ — correction reliable
Positive: model too strong / veered. Correction in Coming hours = forecast − bias.
4/6 behind a model = how often it ranked first over the last 6 hours.

Run monitor

Model	Received	Largest shift (12 h)
Harmonie (KNMI)	NEW Thu 20:47	Δ 2.0 kn / 46°
AROME/ARPEGE (MF)	NEW Thu 20:47	Δ 1.7 kn / 30°
ECMWF IFS	Thu 15:43	Δ 0.8 kn / 18°
GFS (NOAA)	Thu 19:27	Δ 1.9 kn / 18°
ICON (DWD)	Thu 19:00	Δ 1.3 kn / 22°
UKMO	NEW Thu 20:47	Δ 0.8 kn / 32°

A large Δ means the model has substantially changed its mind versus its previous run — a reason to review the forecast.