WindCast · Medemblik

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Wind, radar & satellite

08162535

Coming hours — best model, corrected

Best model now: Harmonie (KNMI) · bias -1.3 kn / -2°

Time	Model (raw)	Corrected	Gust (corr.)
18:00	278° / 12 kn	280° / 13 kn	17 kn
19:00	279° / 7 kn	282° / 8 kn	17 kn
20:00	273° / 5 kn	276° / 6 kn	11 kn
21:00	267° / 5 kn	270° / 6 kn	8 kn
22:00	272° / 7 kn	274° / 8 kn	11 kn
23:00	249° / 4 kn	252° / 6 kn	11 kn

Stavoren IJsselmeer

↓284° 12kn

gust – kn · ▲ +2 · 70 min ago

Stavoren

↓281° 11kn

gust 15 kn · ▬ · 20 min ago

Houtribdijk

↓270° 14kn

gust 19 kn · ▬ · 20 min ago

Markermeer Trintelzand

↓268° 15kn

gust – kn · ▬ · 50 min ago

Rotterdamsehoek IJsselmeer

↓285° 12kn

gust – kn · ▬ · 30 min ago

Markermeer, midden

↓283° 14kn

gust – kn · ▬ · 70 min ago

De Kooy

↓271° 7kn

gust 13 kn · ▼ -2 · 20 min ago

IJmuiden

↓257° 13kn

gust 16 kn · ▬ · 20 min ago

Wind last 6 hours — stations

Model bias now — rolling 3 h · compare models

	Model	bias		spreiding
	Model	TWS	TWD	TWS	TWD
1	Harmonie (KNMI)2/6	-1.3	-2°	±1.4 kn	±4°
2	AROME/ARPEGE (MF)3/6	-1.0	+7°	±1.4 kn	±6°
3	GFS (NOAA)0/6	-0.8	-2°	±1.9 kn	±6°
4	ICON (DWD)0/6	-0.7	-3°	±2.0 kn	±4°
5	UKMO0/6	+0.8	+9°	±1.4 kn	±6°
6	ECMWF IFS1/6	-3.2	+2°	±1.9 kn	±8°

⚠ bias shifting — conditions are changing; lean on the observations
Positive: model too strong / veered. Correction in Coming hours = forecast − bias.
4/6 behind a model = how often it ranked first over the last 6 hours.

Run monitor

Model	Received	Largest shift (12 h)
Harmonie (KNMI)	NEW Thu 17:51	Δ 4.3 kn / 44°
AROME/ARPEGE (MF)	NEW Thu 17:51	Δ 1.1 kn / 23°
ECMWF IFS	Thu 15:43	Δ 0.8 kn / 18°
GFS (NOAA)	Thu 13:32	Δ 1.5 kn / 10°
ICON (DWD)	Thu 15:29	Δ 1.5 kn / 30°
UKMO	NEW Thu 17:51	Δ 1.0 kn / 18°

A large Δ means the model has substantially changed its mind versus its previous run — a reason to review the forecast.