WindCast · Medemblik

Stavoren

↓91° 10kn ▼ -2

gust 14 kn · – hPa · KNMI · 12 min ago

Houtribdijk

↓92° 14kn ▬

gust 17 kn · – hPa · KNMI · 12 min ago

De Kooy

↓95° 10kn ▬

gust 14 kn · 1012.3 hPa · KNMI · 12 min ago

IJmuiden

↓79° 12kn ▬

gust 16 kn · – hPa · KNMI · 12 min ago

Vlieland Island

↓90° 15kn ▼ -2

gust – kn · 1012.0 hPa · METAR · 17 min ago

Model bias now — rolling 3 h

	Model	bias TWS	bias TWD	MAE kn	MAE °
1	AROME/ARPEGE (MF)	-0.5	+1°	1.1	4°
2	UKMO	-1.3	+1°	1.3	4°
3	ICON (DWD)	-0.1	+2°	1.7	5°
4	Harmonie (KNMI)	-1.8	+3°	1.8	6°
5	GFS (NOAA)	-2.6	+5°	2.6	8°
6	ECMWF IFS	-5.3	+0°	5.3	6°

AROME/ARPEGE (MF) ranked 1st in 2 of the last 7 hours
bias stable across the window ✓ — correction reliable
bias = model − observation, median over the last 3 hours across all stations. Positive: model too strong / veered. Correction in the next panel = forecast − bias.

Coming hours — best model, corrected

Best model now: AROME/ARPEGE (MF) · bias -0.5 kn / +1°

Time	Model (raw)	Corrected	Gust (corr.)
11:00	97° / 14 kn	96° / 14 kn	17 kn
12:00	108° / 13 kn	107° / 14 kn	16 kn
13:00	107° / 11 kn	106° / 12 kn	13 kn
14:00	110° / 9 kn	109° / 10 kn	10 kn
15:00	102° / 8 kn	101° / 8 kn	10 kn
16:00	81° / 6 kn	80° / 7 kn	9 kn

Run monitor

Model	Last new run	Largest shift (12 h)
Harmonie (KNMI)	NEW Mon 10:49	Δ 5.8 kn / 166°
AROME/ARPEGE (MF)	NEW Mon 10:49	Δ 1.3 kn / 8°
ECMWF IFS	Mon 10:04	Δ 1.1 kn / 16°
GFS (NOAA)	Mon 07:49	Δ 4.4 kn / 34°
ICON (DWD)	Mon 09:33	Δ 7.1 kn / 37°
UKMO	Mon 10:04	Δ 1.1 kn / 28°

A large Δ means the model has substantially changed its mind versus its previous run — a reason to review the forecast.

WindCast · Medemblik

Wind last 6 hours — stations

Model bias now — rolling 3 h

Coming hours — best model, corrected

Radar & satellite

Run monitor