WindCast · Muiden

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Wind, radar & satellite

08162535

Coming hours — best model, corrected

Best model now: AROME/ARPEGE (MF) · bias +1.8 kn / +1°
TimeModel (raw)CorrectedGust (corr.)
16:00 261° / 29 kn 260° / 27 kn 37 kn
17:00 263° / 27 kn 262° / 26 kn 36 kn
18:00 271° / 31 kn 270° / 29 kn 39 kn
19:00 273° / 28 kn 272° / 27 kn 37 kn
20:00 271° / 27 kn 270° / 25 kn 36 kn
21:00 273° / 26 kn 272° / 24 kn 36 kn

Model bias now — rolling 3 h · compare models

Model bias spread
TWSTWD TWSTWD
1AROME/ARPEGE (MF)3/6 +1.8 +1° ±1.5 ±4°
2Harmonie (KNMI)0/6 +0.7 +1° ±2.3 ±2°
3ICON (DWD)3/6 -1.9 +5° ±3.2 ±3°
4UKMO0/6 -3.1 +4° ±3.1 ±2°
5GFS (NOAA)0/6 -2.4 +4° ±6.7 ±3°
6ECMWF IFS0/6 -7.1 -0° ±5.2 ±3°
⚠ bias shifting — conditions are changing; lean on the observations
Positive: model too strong / veered. Correction in Coming hours = forecast − bias.
4/6 behind a model = how often it ranked first over the last 6 hours.
Schiphol
↓261° 30kn
gust 39 kn · ▲ +4 · 13 min ago
Markermeer, midden
↓269° 29kn
gust – kn · ▲ +6 · 53 min ago
Lelystad
↓257° 20kn
gust 29 kn · ▬ · 23 min ago
IJmuiden
↓270° 37kn
gust 48 kn · ▼ -2 · 13 min ago
Houtribdijk
↓266° 30kn
gust 41 kn · ▲ +4 · 13 min ago
Stavoren
↓264° 28kn
gust 40 kn · ▬ · 23 min ago

Wind last 6 hours — stations

windgrafiek

Run monitor

ModelReceivedLargest shift (12 h)
Harmonie (KNMI) NEW Sun 15:39 Δ 2.0 kn / 5°
AROME/ARPEGE (MF) NEW Sun 15:39 Δ 4.0 kn / 3°
ECMWF IFS Sun 14:28 Δ 1.9 kn / 2°
GFS (NOAA) Sun 12:38 Δ 0.8 kn / 3°
ICON (DWD) Sun 15:02 Δ 1.9 kn / 4°
UKMO NEW Sun 15:39 Δ 1.7 kn / 10°
A large Δ means the model has substantially changed its mind versus its previous run — a reason to review the forecast.
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